New coronavirus curbs ‘will deliver £15bn hit to London’

Business owners said they feared new emergency support measures being announced today by Chancellor Rishi Sunak would be too late to stop a huge wave of job losses
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London’s powerhouse economy will suffer a £15 billion hit as a result of the latest coronavirus restrictions, City economists warned today as business leaders said huge job losses were inevitable.

The estimate came after the number of shoppers in the West End slumped from about 50 per cent of normal to just 40 per cent — the lowest level since June — on the day of Boris Johnson’s sombre address to the nation.

The Prime Minister ordered all pubs, restaurants and bars to close by 10pm and stopped the gradual return to offices by saying people should work from home if they can. The measures are expected to be in place for at least six months.

Simon French, chief economist at City brokers Panmure Gordon, said: “These recent restrictions create a real jolt to confidence for the London economy — that had been recovering during the summer months.

“The direct impact may be relatively modest, but the spillover to forward bookings, investment and hiring will be substantial and we estimate may be as much as £15 billion over the next couple of quarters.”

Business owners in the hospitality and retail sectors said they feared new emergency support measures being announced today by Chancellor Rishi Sunak would be too late to stop a huge wave of job losses and business failures after the furlough scheme ends next month. Jace Tyrrell, chief executive of the New West End Company, which represents hundreds of traders on Oxford Street, Bond Street and Regent Street, said: “The timelines for all these measures are horrific for companies’ planning. They are having to make decisions about redundancies now.

“They have already ordered all the stock for Christmas and lots of it is going to have to be marked down. The West End is very much open and Londoners need to give it their support if it is to survive for the next six months. It’s very, very serious. We estimated that 50,000 jobs were at risk and it is almost guaranteed now that we’re going to lose them.”

Restaurateurs spoke of near despair today about surviving the winter, particularly with the key Christmas party season almost certain to be wiped out by the “rule of six” and the 10pm curfew.

In Bayswater, dozens of bars and restaurants are financially strapped as the tourists they have relied on have melted away. Peter Abdelsayed owner of the Mezze Bar and Grill said 20 per cent of his takings would disappear overnight when the 10pm curfew kicks in.

He told the Standard: “My tables outside are usually full till midnight. The curfew will be terrible for us. It’s also going to be chaos when my customers turn up to be seated at 8pm or 9pm. We are going to have to turn some people away which we can’t afford to do. Already we are losing business in the day because people are not going to offices. We are losing in every way. We need the Government to be clearer and to help us.”

Simon Thomas, chief executive of West End casino the Hippodrome, said: “The curfew is going to be particularly damaging to casinos because 60 per cent of income comes after 10pm. I just hope the measures being announced today are not too little, too late.”

Jeremy King, co-owner of leading West End venues such as The Wolseley, said the curfew was “window dressing, completely inappropriate for traditional fully seated restaurants and serves no purpose”. He said that it would result in a further 30 per cent reduction in trade.