The testaments of Westminster: How will the PM weather this week amid Brexit chaos?

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Martha Gill9 September 2019

A very short week in politics awaits: parliament may be sitting for a single day only.

At some point between tonight and Thursday, but probably tonight, the ceremony to prorogue parliament will begin — a Harry Potter-esque ritual which involves ceremonial hats, robes and incantations in Norman French and medieval English. Then, in a puff of smoke, Parliament will be off until October 14.

The timing depends on whether all legislative loose ends are tied off — royal assent must be given to bills that need it, in particular the Hilary Benn Brexit delay bill, which would force Boris Johnson to ask for an extension to the UK’s departure date.

It also leaves time, just, for the other big event in parliament this week, set for this afternoon — Boris Johnson’s final attempt to get an election in mid October.

At the time of writing, it looks extremely unlikely to pass: two-thirds of MPs must vote for it, and Labour and the SNP have been clear they will not.

Expect some loud opinions from the opposition benches and Tory backbenchers on just how well it is all seems to be going for Johnson.

So far, so predictable, but underneath the business of the house the frantic machinations of Westminster’s various factions continue. Here’s what to look out for this week.

Boris Johnson is attempting to get another vote for a General Election through
PA

Resignation watch

The weekend kicked off with the resignation of Johnson’s brother Jo on Friday.

Amber Rudd then turned up the volume on Saturday night, saying in her resignation letter that she had been hoodwinked into believing Johnson had been serious about getting a deal.

Who might be next? The Rudd resignation in particular is difficult for anti-no-deal colleagues to ignore: it has made a dent in their cover stories that Johnson is trying his hardest to get a deal.

There is also, according to Tory sources, “a dawning realisation that they have no ability to shape the agenda, and they are little more than passengers trapped in the boot of a car”.

Former justice secretary David Gauke told the BBC’s Westminster Hour that more Tories were “questioning very seriously their decisions”.

There are rumours, too, that Rudd’s might be the first of a series of drip-fed, co-ordinated resignations.

Ready to jump

The Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith is said to be the most likely to resign: he is deeply unhappy that Johnson has not prepared for direct rule in Northern Ireland should no-deal go ahead.

Justice Secretary Robert Buckland is another potential resignation this week — although over the weekend he made efforts to damp down speculation, suggesting that he would resign only if the Government breaks the law.

Geoffrey Cox, the Government’s chief law officer, is in the same position. Nicky Morgan, the Culture Secretary, is said to be “extremely upset” but “her courage has deserted her” when it comes to resigning.

Conservative MP Amber Rudd resigned on Saturday 
Getty Images

Outsiders

Heath Secretary Matt Hancock is particularly likely to be panicking about being shut in the Government’s boot — among the most feared outcomes of no-deal are medicine shortages, and Hancock will undoubtedly share some of the blame for that.

Michael Gove’s resignation would deal Johnson his biggest blow yet — but he does not belong to the hardcore group who would die in a ditch to see Brexit done.

He sees himself as having a future beyond Johnson, and is said to be concerned about the kamikaze approach the PM’s adviser Dominic Cummings is taking.

Chancellor Sajid Javid is similarly angry about his passenger status: as Chancellor he had expected to have more influence over the Government’s direction.

Tipping points

Should an election date be set this week this might kick off more resignations — as Johnson is forced into a position on whether or not he is leaving with a deal (any sniff of a deal and the putative election pact with the Brexit Party would crumble).

At this point harsh realities confront those who still hoping Johnson may broker one. Added to this pressure are rumours that a group of independent conservatives — including Rory Stewart and Rudd — might be at the early stages of planning a new party, a sort of Change UK 2.0.

Stewart has been building a network of activists which may be enough to convince ex-Tories to join him.

There are reports, too, that this group may make a pact with the Liberal Democrats, and not field candidates against each other.

Boris’s extension manoeuvres

One thing remains steady this week: Johnson’s plans do not involve asking the EU for an extension.

The idea that he might risk prison to do so is receding — over the weekend Javid and Dominic Raab made it clear he would abide by the law — despite the reported urgings from his hard-Brexit MPs.

He will, at least, try legal trickery first. Three strategies are said to be under consideration: one, according to a story in the Telegraph, is that Johnson intends to send an accompanying letter alongside the request to extend Article 50, stating that the Government does not in fact want the extension it asks for.

Another is that Johnson may ask for a judicial review of the new law. A third, is that Johnson would resign rather than sign the extension letter, leaving Corbyn to form a government, before the Tories force him into an election with a vote of no confidence.

Meltdowns and bubbling disasters

Expect some further scary details to leak out about the consequences of no-deal — now the scenario on everyone’s minds.

We may be headed for another meltdown too: can Cummings cope? His current strategy depends on him personally orchestrating the entire workings of the Tory government — a lot of pressure for a single human being to deal with.

“The risk is it will make him not as stable as he needs to be. He’s been saying, ‘We’ve got to be cool like Fonzie’, but how cool is he?” said one insider.

Downing Street forgets that replacing an experienced minister with a newbie puts extra strain on the civil servants working for them.

The existing strain, along with no-deal preparations, is already enormous.

There are also reports that this slew of resignations is badly damaging activists’ morale. Activists form the infrastructure that lies underneath any success in an election; you cannot run a campaign without them.

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The polls

Hardcore Brexiteers are of the opinion that the past week was good for Boris — it merely painted MPs, opposition parties and the institutions of government as Brexit blockers in the eyes of the public, who will claim Johnson as their hero.

One Brexiteer source claims to have seen data which suggests Johnson will win an election come what may. Watch the polls closely.

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