Mercury Prize 2020 predictions: From Michael Kiwanuka to Dua Lipa, whose album will win?

Contenders: Michael Kiwanuka, Charli XCX and Stormzy
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Jochan Embley17 September 2020

So, who’s going to win the Mercury Prize this year? It’s a tough question and one that, like pretty much every year, is still very much up for debate.

Here, we’ve run the rule over each of the 12 albums — which range retro-pop smashes to jazz-inflected explorations — to try to work out just who might claim the top prize when the winner is announced next week, on September 24.

We’ve checked what the bookmakers are saying, trawled old album reviews and run through a few unlikely scenarios, and have picked out who we think has the best chance, who is likely to be there or thereabouts, and who might just have an outside chance.

Are we correct? Only time will tell.

The favourite: Michael Kiwanuka — KIWANUKA

It’s not every year that the critics and the bookies align when it comes to choosing a frontrunner for the Mercury Prize, but this year they’re united behind Michael Kiwanuka. He’s got the shortest odds at pretty much every bookmaker covering the ceremony, and he got some sparkling feedback from music writers — the Standard was one of many publications to give him the full five stars. The hype is more than deserved, too. KIWANUKA was the album you always knew he could make, an effervescent, deep-rooted triumph.

The challenger: Dua Lipa — Future Nostalgia

Truth be told, there are a few albums that could plausibly rain on the Kiwanuka parade — Charli XCX’s how i’m feeling now was unapologetically bold, and Laura Marling’s Song for Our Daughter might just be her finest work to date. But Dua Lipa’s Future Nostalgia stands out as one of the real contenders. It was a dazzling bolt of disco-pop joy, exactly the kind of album to brighten a wretched 2020. The fact that she’s already such a huge star might count against her — the Mercury judges never usually opt for pop titans — but still, she’s got every chance of walking away with the top prize.

The curveball: Porridge Radio — Every Bad

Fancy a punt? Brightonian four-piece Porridge Radio have pretty long odds at the bookies as it stands, but with the success of Every Bad, they’ve got a fighting chance of causing an upset. It got great reviews across the board, with Dana Margolin a sardonic, snarling presence at the helm of all they do. Not convinced? Moses Boyd is a similarly speculative shout, but the Catford artist might just pull it off — his album Dark Matter was a multi-sided wonder, pushing his jazz-rooted sound into bold new directions.

The longshot: Lanterns on the Lake — Spook the Herd

Every year’s shortlist has its surprise inclusion, and this year it’s Lanterns on the Lake. The Newcastle band received nowhere near as much fanfare for their fourth album, Spook The Herd, when it was released compared to the other finalists, and as such, you have to say they're the least likely group to come out on top next week. If they did though, you couldn’t say it was undeserved — it’s a beautiful, timely piece of music, tackling the issues of the day with assured elegance.