The whole point about the horror of Halloween is that it’s a fantasy. Nothing bad really happens.
Children dress up and collect treats from their neighbours; they don’t turn up and say: “You’ve tricked us, we’re moving neighbourhood.” Bear this in mind when you hear that October 31 is the latest date for Brexit, set by the European Council early this morning.
It says something about our nation’s catastrophic loss of influence that the date was not one proposed by Britain, and that the British Prime Minister was not even allowed in the room where our fate was sealed. European Council President Donald Tusk asks us politely today: “Please don’t waste this time.”
Sorry, Donald. We know you’ve been a good friend to our nation throughout this tragedy but that is precisely what we will do.
There is next to no chance that we will use the next six months to resolve Brexit. Parliament isn’t going to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal. She has given up even suggesting that she might resubmit it for a vote. Nor is Labour going to help Mrs May pass an amended deal, which includes its demands for a permanent customs union.
Yes, the talks continue at a desultory pace, because no one wants to be the person who breaks them off.
The Prime Minister cannot accept a customs union — she foolishly marched the Conservative Party up the hill opposing one over the past two years and now finds she can’t march them down it.
Her own International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, took it upon himself to write a public letter to Tory MPs on Tuesday setting out why a customs union wasn’t acceptable: “The UK would have a new role in the global trading system,” he wrote. “We ourselves would be traded.”
There doesn’t sound like much room for compromise there.
Nor will Labour be fooled by Government attempts to convince it that the current withdrawal agreement amounts to a customs union.
The consistent line from Labour’s front bench is that the Prime Minister is offering nothing new, and that’s not good enough. Meanwhile, forces in the Labour movement horrified that Jeremy Corbyn might be a midwife to a Tory Brexit deal are rallying.
From every political perspective, Mr Corbyn would be mad to agree.
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But even if the Labour and Conservative leaders were to sign on the same dotted line (Molotov/Ribbentrop style) it’s not clear that they would have the numbers in Parliament to win a vote.
There is talk of another round of indicative votes, with MPs picking the option they like and the Government then trying to make it happen.
This got nowhere, twice.
Even if this happened, and something got narrowly over the line once, it’s not the same as a deal. It would fall apart under a barrage from Conservative opponents.
Just look at the vote earlier this week when the Prime Minister sought an extension to Brexit. Only 133 out of 313 Tory MPs voted with her, with many in her Cabinet abstaining. That is the only reliable core she now commands in Parliament.
Would Mr Corbyn be able to deliver consistently 200 of his own MPs into the Government lobby — not just once for one vote but for the multiple votes, night after night, that will be required to pass the withdrawal Bill, see off rebel amendments or add in anything like a “Boris-lock”?
It’s not going to happen.
So there’s no deal that will pass by October 31 — and we know that “no deal” won’t pass either.
Six months isn’t enough time for a second referendum, even if the parliamentary numbers were there — which they’re not.
A general election doesn’t take long but neither major party can risk one.
The latest polls show Conservative support is collapsing — silencing the Tory commentators who used to crow that they were still ahead — and that the independent group is taking from Labour too.
Eliminate all the Brexit options that won’t happen and you’re left with the one that we know already has (twice): delay.
The Evening Standard was the first to predict Brexit wouldn’t happen on March 29 — and was confident it wouldn’t happen on April 12.
We are pretty sure Brexit won’t take place on October 31. Come Halloween, we’ll be knocking again on our neighbours’ doors and asking: please, can you treat us to yet another delay.