JD Wetherspoon pubs boss Tim Martin gets it wrong again on Covid lockdown policy

He hails the Swedish laissez-faire model but that may have killed more than the UK approach and still hurt businesses like his. The fact is, it's too early to tell.
Wetherspoon's customers were delighted to return
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Oh dear. Looks like Tim Martin has blundered again.

Having first brought opprobrium on himself for his hamfisted tone at the start of the Covid outbreak, today the Wetherspoons’ chief declares we should have followed the Swedish route of not severely locking down.

Lockdowns, he says, achieved little apart from huge economic damage.

Martin seems to be no fan of experts, but he has decided to base his certain view on the thoughts of Sweden’s epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

Who he? The architect of Sweden’s no-lockdown strategy. So, with apologies to Mandy Rice-Davies, he would say that, wouldn’t he?

As compelling as the Tegnell-Martin argument is the data showing Sweden has had a more protracted outbreak, with far more deaths, than its stricter neighbours – 57 per 100,000 compared with Norway and Denmark’s five and 11 according to New Scientist.

On the economy, Sweden’s 8.6% GDP fall in the second quarter was indeed better than the EU average.

But then, if you look at spending patterns – the most vital element of GDP for pubs like Martin’s - Swedes cut back nearly as much as Denmark (25% vs 29%) as the pandemic raged.

And, spending in Denmark recovered faster.

The Swedes, you see, changed their behaviour even though it wasn’t compulsory.

Where Martin may have a point is that it seems young Swedes’ spending was more resilient.

They carried on more normally, presumably going to bars and pubs, than older folks.

That may have helped Martin’s peers in the pubs sector there, but the author of the spending analysis, Copenhagen prof Adam Sheridan, says the under-30s’ spending power across the wider economy is far less impactful than their more cautious older peers.

The likely second wave could make Sweden’s approach look better than its neighbours. As with the UK, it made horrible errors allowing the spread to care homes and is unlikely to repeat them.

It may also have better immunity due to its laissez faire approach, although, at 20% in Stockholm, that is nowhere near the 70% needed for herd status.

The point is, none of us yet know.

And one suspects Tim Martin, pub landlord, knows less than most.

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